Newmoon Capital

Please find updated post here:  https://newmooncap.substack.com/p/deliveroo-7bn-valuationreally What about Deliveroo? $7bn valuation! And it is profitable! I find this valuation pretty absurd, although I am pretty sure whoever made this investment in Durable would still make money in the IPO pop. I have a few concerns: Notice that Deliveroo only said it is profitable on an operating level. What does this mean? Does this exclude corporate HQ costs such as restaurant and courier acquisition? How profitable would Deliveroo be post-Covid? I am guessing Covid benefited the company’s unit economics by increasing AOV, willingness to pay a delivery fee, and reducing CAC (S&M). MOST IMPORTANTLY , we know that Deliveroo is only profitable because the company do two things: (1) charge a high delivery fee, (2) lower courier fee per hour, and (3) shrink courier radius to ensure higher drop velocity and therefore further lowering delivery fee per drop This should allow Deliveroo to be pr...

Please find the updated post here:  https://newmooncap.substack.com/p/the-misconception-just-eat-takeaway Why is Takeaway.com so hated? Why is the stock price down after its 4Q20 earnings print? Why are people so shocked by the company’s decision to take down profit to capture market share – didn’t the company inform investors that they would do just such a thing, and history (Germany) would suggest that is the right strategy? In this post, I would delve into what I believe is the company’s strategy and why the company is poised to win in the long run. This deserves a post itself, rather than a twitter thread (I usually only post when I feel like the market really misunderstand a critical fulcrum issue on a company - see previous posts on SE and NFLX). Debate What’s Takeaway strategy? Somehow, Fintwit has this conception that Takeaway is eBay or legacy GRUB – unwilling to change with the times and maniacally focused on profits. Part of this is the fact that Jitse (Takea...